Survival analysis of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in New Yangon General Hospital by prognostic indicators

Thant Syn Htoo; Swe Mar Myint Lwin; May Soe Aung; Thin Thin Nwe

doi:10.18203/2320-6012.ijrms20232177

Authors

Thant Syn Htoo Department of Medicine, University of Medicine 1, Yangon, Myanmar
Swe Mar Myint Lwin Department of Health Behavior and Communication, University of Public Health, Myanmar
May Soe Aung Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, University of Medicine 1, Yangon, Myanmar
Thin Thin Nwe Department of Medicine, University of Medicine 1, Yangon, Myanmar

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18203/2320-6012.ijrms20232177

Keywords:

Hospitalized COVID-19 patients, New Yangon General Hospital, Prognostic indicators

Abstract

Background: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and it can infect anyone resulting in serious illness and death.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in New Yangon General Hospital (NYGH), Yangon between September and November, 2022. Previous records of COVID-19 in-patients admitted to NYGH from 1^st June to 31^st October, 2021, were reviewed. COVID-19 in-patients who tested positive by real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) or rapid diagnostic test (RDT) were included in this study. Multivariate analysis by Cox proportional-hazards (CPH) model was used to identify the prognostic indicators associated with the survival of COVID-19 inpatients.

Results: Of (460) COVID-19 positive patients, there were 133 (28.9%) deaths with mortality rate of 16.9 per 1000 person-days. Then, 97 (72.9%) deaths occurred within 21 days of symptom onset, with median survival time of 28 (95% CI: 25-36) days. The results of the CPH model showed that the abnormal chest X-ray (CXR) [aHR=3.8, 95% CI: (1.1, 12.6), p=0.032], SpO₂ level below 92% [aHR=3.7, 95% CI: 2.3, 5.9, p<0.001)], serum creatinine level more than 133 µmol/L [aHR=1.9, 95% CI: 1.1, 3.2, p=0.025] and C-reactive protein level (CRP) more than 10 mg/L [aHR=3.9, 95% CI: 1.2, 12.9, p=0.027] were the prognostic indicators of COVID-19 death among inpatients in NYGH.

Conclusions: Patients with abnormal CXR result, low SpO2 level, high serum creatinine level, and high CRP level may have increased risks of death among COVID-19 inpatients in NYGH. Thus, close monitoring of the hospitalized COVID-19 inpatients by using these prognostic indicators should be emphasized.

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